Xpect
Bahia vs Flamengo: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Bahia 5.7, Flamengo 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Bahia 2.3, Flamengo 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 45%.
Result
Our model: Bahia win 37%, draw 26%, Flamengo win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Bahia: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
Flamengo: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Bahia — 6, Flamengo — 1 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Bahia at home and Flamengo away, 2024–2026.
| Bahia | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 53 |
| Win rate | 60% | 49% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 54% | 57% |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Bahia won 4, 4 draws, Flamengo won 18. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.9 corners, 4.2 yellow cards.
- 19.04.2026: Flamengo 2:0 Bahia
- 05.10.2025: Bahia 1:0 Flamengo
- 11.05.2025: Flamengo 1:0 Bahia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 49%.
Who is more likely to win Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our model: Bahia 37%, draw 26%, Flamengo 37%.