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Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Bayer Leverkusen 5.5, SC Freiburg 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Bayer Leverkusen 1.6, SC Freiburg 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 45%.
Result
Our model: Bayer Leverkusen win 48%, draw 22%, SC Freiburg win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 68%.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
SC Freiburg: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 11 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Bayer Leverkusen — 4, SC Freiburg — 3 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Bayer Leverkusen at home and SC Freiburg away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 36 |
| Win rate | 58% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 8.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 28% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 19% |
Head to head
54 meetings in our database: Bayer Leverkusen won 25, 17 draws, SC Freiburg won 12. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.1 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 07.03.2026: SC Freiburg 3:3 Bayer Leverkusen
- 26.10.2025: Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 SC Freiburg
- 04.05.2025: SC Freiburg 2:2 Bayer Leverkusen
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model: Bayer Leverkusen 48%, draw 22%, SC Freiburg 30%.