Xpect
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.8, TSG Hoffenheim 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.6, TSG Hoffenheim 2.3; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 65%.
Result
Our model: Borussia Mönchengladbach win 54%, draw 20%, TSG Hoffenheim win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 74%, both teams to score — 71%.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
TSG Hoffenheim: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 18, TSG Hoffenheim — 17 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home and TSG Hoffenheim away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 36 |
| Win rate | 36% | 31% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 75% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 33% |
Head to head
36 meetings in our database: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 13, 12 draws, TSG Hoffenheim won 11. Per match: 3.8 goals, 10.3 corners, 3.9 yellow cards.
- 16.05.2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4:0 TSG Hoffenheim
- 14.01.2026: TSG Hoffenheim 5:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 03.05.2025: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4:4 TSG Hoffenheim
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.
Who is more likely to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Our model: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54%, draw 20%, TSG Hoffenheim 26%.