Xpect
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Brighton & Hove Albion 5.6, Crystal Palace 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.9, Crystal Palace 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 53%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Brighton & Hove Albion win 55%, draw 23%, Crystal Palace win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
Crystal Palace: last five matches — W-L-L-W-D.
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Brighton & Hove Albion — 3, Crystal Palace — 15 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Brighton & Hove Albion at home and Crystal Palace away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Win rate | 46% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 39% |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Brighton & Hove Albion won 6, 10 draws, Crystal Palace won 9. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.3 corners, 3.9 yellow cards.
- 08.02.2026: Brighton & Hove Albion 0:1 Crystal Palace
- 09.11.2025: Crystal Palace 0:0 Brighton & Hove Albion
- 05.04.2025: Crystal Palace 2:1 Brighton & Hove Albion
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace?
Our model: Brighton & Hove Albion 55%, draw 23%, Crystal Palace 23%.