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Everton vs Chelsea: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Everton 5.2, Chelsea 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Everton 1.8, Chelsea 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Everton win 32%, draw 27%, Chelsea win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Everton: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Chelsea: last five matches — L-D-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Everton — 7, Chelsea — 10 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Everton at home and Chelsea away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Everton | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Win rate | 32% | 39% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 61% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 66% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 56% |
Head to head
69 meetings in our database: Everton won 16, 23 draws, Chelsea won 30. Per match: 2.5 goals, 10.5 corners, 3.4 yellow cards.
- 21.03.2026: Everton 3:0 Chelsea
- 13.12.2025: Chelsea 2:0 Everton
- 26.04.2025: Chelsea 1:0 Everton
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Market line without margin: Everton 32%, draw 27%, Chelsea 41%.