Xpect
Celtic vs St Mirren: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Premiership · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Celtic · St Mirren
Before kick-off
Premiership, 21 November 2026: Celtic are at home to St Mirren. Celtic sit 1st in the 12-team table while St Mirren are 8th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Celtic are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Results have gone against St Mirren recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Celtic against 3 for St Mirren.
Celtic are hard to beat on their own ground — 34 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats in 43 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.6 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. The away record of St Mirren: 10 wins, 7 draws and 23 defeats in 40 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on average.
Head to head, Celtic have the upper hand: 48 wins in 59 meetings with St Mirren in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 5 September 2026, finished St Mirren 1:2 Celtic. On average these meetings produce 3.1 goals.
Form
Celtic: last five matches — W-L-D-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
St Mirren: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Celtic — 1, St Mirren — 8 (of 12).
Home and away record
Celtic at home and St Mirren away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Celtic | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 40 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 34-4-5 | 10-7-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.7 |
Head to head
59 meetings in our database: Celtic won 48, 7 draws, St Mirren won 4. Per match: 3.1 goals.
- 05.09.2026: St Mirren 1:2 Celtic
- 19.04.2026: Celtic 2:2 St Mirren
- 11.04.2026: Celtic 1:0 St Mirren
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Celtic is the more likely winner in our model: 79%, draw 14%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 74% of Celtic’s home matches and 48% of St Mirren’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Celtic: 48 wins in 59 meetings with St Mirren.
- Our model expects more corners from Celtic: 7.8 against 3.2 for St Mirren.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 11.1 corners in the match: Celtic 7.8, St Mirren 3.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 67% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 55%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Celtic 1.7, St Mirren 2.4; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Celtic win 79%, draw 14%, St Mirren win 7%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 44%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Celtic | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 79% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 72% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 23% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.