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Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Premiership · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Dundee · Heart of Midlothian
Before kick-off
Dundee host Heart of Midlothian in Premiership on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Dundee are 5th, Heart of Midlothian 4th in a table of 12.
Dundee have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Heart of Midlothian are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
The home record of Dundee (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 16 wins, 11 draws and 15 defeats in 42 matches, 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Away from home Heart of Midlothian have 16 wins, 8 draws and 17 defeats in 41 matches, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The 44 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Dundee 12, Heart of Midlothian 25, draws 7. Last time out (6 September 2026) it ended Heart of Midlothian 2:1 Dundee. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Dundee: last five matches — L-D-W-D-W.
- 14 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 9 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Heart of Midlothian: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Dundee — 5, Heart of Midlothian — 4 (of 12).
Home and away record
Dundee at home and Heart of Midlothian away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Dundee | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-11-15 | 16-8-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Head to head
44 meetings in our database: Dundee won 12, 7 draws, Heart of Midlothian won 25. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 06.09.2026: Heart of Midlothian 2:1 Dundee
- 21.03.2026: Heart of Midlothian 1:0 Dundee
- 11.01.2026: Dundee 0:1 Heart of Midlothian
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Heart of Midlothian should win the corner count: 5.9 expected against 4.4 for Dundee.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 71% of Dundee home games and 61% of Heart of Midlothian away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Dundee 40%, draw 22%, Heart of Midlothian 38%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Dundee 4.4, Heart of Midlothian 5.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 55%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Dundee 2.1, Heart of Midlothian 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 60%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Dundee win 40%, draw 22%, Heart of Midlothian win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 68%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Dundee | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 74% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 71% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 37% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.