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Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Premiership · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kilmarnock · Aberdeen
Before kick-off
Premiership, 21 November 2026: Kilmarnock are at home to Aberdeen. They are neighbours in the table: Kilmarnock are 12th and Aberdeen 11th of 12. Both sides are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for Kilmarnock: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Aberdeen have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 6 against 7.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Kilmarnock have 17 wins, 11 draws and 14 defeats in 42 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Aberdeen — 10 wins, 7 draws and 25 defeats in 42 away matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 82 meetings — wins: Kilmarnock 19, Aberdeen 45; draws: 18. The most recent meeting, on 12 September 2026, finished Kilmarnock 1:1 Aberdeen. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Kilmarnock: last five matches — L-D-D-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Aberdeen: last five matches — W-D-W-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Kilmarnock — 12, Aberdeen — 11 (of 12).
Home and away record
Kilmarnock at home and Aberdeen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Kilmarnock | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-11-14 | 10-7-25 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Head to head
82 meetings in our database: Kilmarnock won 19, 18 draws, Aberdeen won 45. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 12.09.2026: Kilmarnock 1:1 Aberdeen
- 05.09.2026: Aberdeen 0:0 Kilmarnock
- 25.04.2026: Aberdeen 1:0 Kilmarnock
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 39% – 25% – 36%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Kilmarnock’s home matches and 45% of Aberdeen’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.6 corners in the match: Kilmarnock 5.2, Aberdeen 5.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 61% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 61%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Kilmarnock 1.8, Aberdeen 2.3; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 60%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Kilmarnock win 39%, draw 25%, Aberdeen win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kilmarnock | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 45% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 11.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 41% | 69% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 31% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.