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Falkirk vs St Johnstone: prediction and statistics

Scotland · Premiership · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Falkirk · St Johnstone

Before kick-off

Premiership, 21 November 2026: Falkirk are at home to St Johnstone. Falkirk go into the match 3rd of 12 in the table, St Johnstone are 7th. Falkirk are part of the leading group.

Recent results of Falkirk are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. St Johnstone have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.

At home (2024/25–2026/27) Falkirk have 10 wins, 5 draws and 11 defeats in 26 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for St Johnstone — 3 wins, 5 draws and 14 defeats in 22 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.9 on average.

This fixture often ends level: 3 of the 7 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 19 September 2026, finished St Johnstone 1:1 Falkirk. On average these meetings produce 1.8 goals.

Form

Falkirk: last five matches — L-W-L-W-W.

St Johnstone: last five matches — L-D-W-L-D.

Table: Falkirk — 3, St Johnstone — 7 (of 12).

Home and away record

Falkirk at home and St Johnstone away, 2024/25–2026/27.

FalkirkSt Johnstone
Matches2622
Wins · draws · losses10-5-113-5-14
Goals scored per match1.60.9
Goals conceded per match1.61.9

Head to head

7 meetings in our database: Falkirk won 1, 3 draws, St Johnstone won 3. Per match: 1.8 goals.

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Key facts

  • Draws are common in this fixture: 3 of 7 meetings.
  • Our model expects more corners from Falkirk: 7.2 against 3.3 for St Johnstone.
  • Falkirk is the more likely winner in our model: 57%, draw 23%.
  • Over 2.5 goals happened in 62% of Falkirk’s home matches and 55% of St Johnstone’s away matches over three seasons.

Corners

60%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Falkirk 7.2, St Johnstone 3.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 60%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 60%.

Yellow cards

68%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Falkirk 1.9, St Johnstone 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 31%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.

Result

Our model: Falkirk win 57%, draw 23%, St Johnstone win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.

Team statistics for three seasons

FalkirkSt Johnstone
Win rate38%14%
Over 2.5 goals62%55%
Both teams score65%50%
Total corners per match9.410.4
Over 9.5 corners46%55%
Total yellow cards per match3.83.2
Over 4.5 yellow cards31%27%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 9.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.9 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

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