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Club Brugge vs Lens: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Club Brugge · Lens
Key facts
- Club Brugge should win the corner count: 5.6 expected against 4.6 for Lens.
- Our model makes Club Brugge the favourite at 65%; a draw is 18%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Club Brugge 5.6, Lens 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Club Brugge 1.7, Lens 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 64%, typical match 62%.
Result
Our model: Club Brugge win 65%, draw 18%, Lens win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 66%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Club Brugge
All 16: 8W · 2D · 6L · goals 38:33
Home 8: 4W · 2D · 2L · goals 24:15
- 13.10.26 · UCL · Inter (a) 4:3
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Aston Villa (h) 2:3
- 24.02.26 · UCL · Atletico Madrid (a) 1:4
- 18.02.26 · UCL · Atletico Madrid (h) 3:3
- 28.01.26 · UCL · Marseille (h) 3:0
League · Pro League 2026/27: 2 of 18 · 7W · 0D · 1L · goals 19:4. Belgium — 7 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 59.9).
Lens
All 2: 1W · 0D · 1L · goals 3:4
Away 1: 1W · 0D · 0L · goals 3:2
- 13.10.26 · UCL · Sporting CP (h) 0:2
- 10.09.26 · UCL · Slavia Praha (a) 3:2
League · Ligue 1 2026/27: 10 of 18 · 2W · 1D · 3L · goals 11:10. France — 5 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 69.2).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Club Brugge — 18 of 36 · 3 pts · 2 played; Lens — 19 of 36 · 3 pts · 2 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Club Brugge: last five matches — L-W-W-W-W.
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Lens: last five matches — L-W-D-L-W.
Team statistics for three seasons
Club Brugge at home and Lens away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Club Brugge | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 1 |
| Win rate | 50% | 100% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | 7.6 | 15.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Club Brugge vs Lens?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Club Brugge vs Lens?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 44%.
Who is more likely to win Club Brugge vs Lens?
Our model: Club Brugge 65%, draw 18%, Lens 17%.