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Como vs Manchester United: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Como · Manchester United
Key facts
- Como should win the corner count: 5.2 expected against 4.2 for Manchester United.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Como 5.2, Manchester United 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Como 1.9, Manchester United 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Como win 29%, draw 24%, Manchester United win 47%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Como
All 1: 1W · 0D · 0L · goals 4:1
Home 1: 1W · 0D · 0L · goals 4:1
- 10.09.26 · UCL · RB Leipzig (h) 4:1
League · Serie A 2026/27: 7 of 20 · 3W · 2D · 1L · goals 9:6. Italy — 2 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 88.6).
Manchester United
All 2: 1W · 0D · 1L · goals 4:2
Away 1: 0W · 0D · 1L · goals 0:2
- 13.10.26 · UCL · Atletico Madrid (a) 0:2
- 10.09.26 · UCL · Sabah FA (h) 4:0
League · Premier League 2026/27: 13 of 20 · 1W · 3D · 2L · goals 9:9. England — 1 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 104.0).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Como — 6 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; Manchester United — 7 of 36 · 3 pts · 2 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Como: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
Manchester United: last five matches — D-L-D-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Como at home and Manchester United away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Como | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| Win rate | 100% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams score | 100% | 0% |
| Total corners per match | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 100% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Como vs Manchester United?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Como vs Manchester United?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win Como vs Manchester United?
Our model: Como 29%, draw 24%, Manchester United 47%.