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Corinthians vs Botafogo: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 19 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Corinthians · Botafogo
Before kick-off
Serie A, 19 November 2026: Corinthians are at home to Botafogo. Botafogo sit 11th in the 20-team table while Corinthians are 17th, so 6 places separate the two sides.
Corinthians are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Botafogo are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024–2026) Corinthians have 24 wins, 18 draws and 13 defeats in 55 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Botafogo: 21 wins, 15 draws and 19 defeats in 55 matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 31 meetings — wins: Corinthians 10, Botafogo 12; draws: 9. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Botafogo 3:1 Corinthians. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Corinthians: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
Botafogo: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Corinthians — 17, Botafogo — 11 (of 20).
Home and away record
Corinthians at home and Botafogo away, 2024–2026.
| Corinthians | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 55 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-18-13 | 21-15-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Head to head
31 meetings in our database: Corinthians won 10, 9 draws, Botafogo won 12. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 17.05.2026: Botafogo 3:1 Corinthians
- 30.11.2025: Corinthians 2:2 Botafogo
- 26.07.2025: Botafogo 1:1 Corinthians
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of Corinthians’s home matches and 40% of Botafogo’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Corinthians: 7.0 against 3.4 for Botafogo.
- Corinthians is the more likely winner in our model: 53%, draw 25%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Corinthians 7.0, Botafogo 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Corinthians 2.1, Botafogo 2.9; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Corinthians win 53%, draw 25%, Botafogo win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Corinthians | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 76% | 64% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.