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Coritiba vs Santos: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 18 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Coritiba host Santos in Serie A on 18 November 2026. In the standings Coritiba are 12th and Santos 9th out of 20 teams.
Coritiba have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Santos are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games.
The home record of Coritiba (2024–2026) is balanced: 6 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats in 17 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Away from home Santos have 10 wins, 9 draws and 17 defeats in 36 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.6 per game.
The 26 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Coritiba 7, Santos 14, draws 5. Last time out (17 May 2026) it ended Santos 0:3 Coritiba. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Coritiba: last five matches — L-D-D-L-W.
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Santos: last five matches — W-W-L-W-L.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Coritiba — 12, Santos — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Coritiba at home and Santos away, 2024–2026.
| Coritiba | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 17 | 36 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 6-5-6 | 10-9-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Coritiba won 7, 5 draws, Santos won 14. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 17.05.2026: Santos 0:3 Coritiba
- 13.05.2026: Coritiba 0:2 Santos
- 22.04.2026: Santos 0:0 Coritiba
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Santos should win the corner count: 5.7 expected against 4.6 for Coritiba.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 41% of Coritiba home games and 69% of Santos away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Coritiba 4.6, Santos 5.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Coritiba 2.0, Santos 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Coritiba win 30%, draw 25%, Santos win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Coritiba | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 35% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 69% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 11.1 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 77% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 47% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.6 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.