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Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 18 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Cruzeiro · Palmeiras
Before kick-off
Serie A, 18 November 2026: Cruzeiro are at home to Palmeiras. They are neighbours in the table: Cruzeiro are 3rd and Palmeiras 2nd of 20. Both sides are in the top three.
Few sides are in better shape than Cruzeiro right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Palmeiras have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for Cruzeiro against 8 for Palmeiras.
Cruzeiro are hard to beat on their own ground — 33 wins, 13 draws and 9 defeats in 55 home matches (2024–2026), with 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Palmeiras travel well: 29 wins, 14 draws and 12 defeats in 55 away matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
This fixture often ends level: 14 of the 32 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Palmeiras 1:1 Cruzeiro. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Cruzeiro: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Palmeiras: last five matches — D-W-W-D-L.
Table: Cruzeiro — 3, Palmeiras — 2 (of 20).
Home and away record
Cruzeiro at home and Palmeiras away, 2024–2026.
| Cruzeiro | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 55 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 33-13-9 | 29-14-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Cruzeiro won 10, 14 draws, Palmeiras won 8. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 17.05.2026: Palmeiras 1:1 Cruzeiro
- 26.10.2025: Palmeiras 0:0 Cruzeiro
- 01.06.2025: Cruzeiro 2:1 Palmeiras
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 35% – 27% – 38%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 58% of Cruzeiro’s home matches and 49% of Palmeiras’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 14 of 32 meetings.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.6 corners in the match: Cruzeiro 5.5, Palmeiras 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 61% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 61%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Cruzeiro 2.5, Palmeiras 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 72%.
Result
Our model: Cruzeiro win 35%, draw 27%, Palmeiras win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Cruzeiro | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 60% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 62% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 56% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.