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Gremio vs Bahia: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 19 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie A, 19 November 2026: Gremio are at home to Bahia. Bahia sit 6th in the 20-team table while Gremio are 18th, so 12 places separate the two sides. Gremio are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Recent results of Gremio are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Results have gone against Bahia recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
At home (2024–2026) Gremio have 26 wins, 12 draws and 17 defeats in 55 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The away record of Bahia: 13 wins, 16 draws and 26 defeats in 55 matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 31 meetings — wins: Gremio 14, Bahia 8; draws: 9. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Bahia 1:1 Gremio. On average these meetings produce 1.9 goals.
Form
Gremio: last five matches — D-D-L-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Bahia: last five matches — W-L-L-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Gremio — 18, Bahia — 6 (of 20).
Home and away record
Gremio at home and Bahia away, 2024–2026.
| Gremio | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 55 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 26-12-17 | 13-16-26 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Head to head
31 meetings in our database: Gremio won 14, 9 draws, Bahia won 8. Per match: 1.9 goals.
- 17.05.2026: Bahia 1:1 Gremio
- 19.10.2025: Bahia 4:0 Gremio
- 25.05.2025: Gremio 1:0 Bahia
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Gremio’s home matches and 58% of Bahia’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 11.1 corners in the match: Gremio 5.8, Bahia 5.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 67% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 56%, typical match 47%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Gremio 2.5, Bahia 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 57%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Gremio win 47%, draw 24%, Bahia win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Gremio | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 47% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 66% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 66% | 56% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.