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Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 18 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Flamengo · Atletico Paranaense
Before kick-off
Flamengo host Atletico Paranaense in Serie A on 18 November 2026. In the standings Flamengo are 1st and Atletico Paranaense 5th out of 20 teams.
Flamengo arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Atletico Paranaense: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Flamengo took 13 from that stretch and Atletico Paranaense only 5.
Home advantage matters here: Flamengo have 38 wins, 13 draws and 4 defeats in 55 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Away from home Atletico Paranaense have 10 wins, 9 draws and 17 defeats in 36 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The 43 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Flamengo 17, Atletico Paranaense 15, draws 11. Last time out (17 May 2026) it ended Atletico Paranaense 1:1 Flamengo. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Flamengo: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 17 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Atletico Paranaense: last five matches — L-D-W-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Flamengo — 1, Atletico Paranaense — 5 (of 20).
Home and away record
Flamengo at home and Atletico Paranaense away, 2024–2026.
| Flamengo | Atletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 36 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 38-13-4 | 10-9-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
Head to head
43 meetings in our database: Flamengo won 17, 11 draws, Atletico Paranaense won 15. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 17.05.2026: Atletico Paranaense 1:1 Flamengo
- 29.09.2024: Flamengo 1:0 Atletico Paranaense
- 16.06.2024: Atletico Paranaense 1:1 Flamengo
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes Flamengo the favourite at 75%; a draw is 17%.
- Flamengo should win the corner count: 6.8 expected against 3.5 for Atletico Paranaense.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 53% of Flamengo home games and 42% of Atletico Paranaense away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Flamengo 6.8, Atletico Paranaense 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Flamengo 2.0, Atletico Paranaense 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 56%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Flamengo win 75%, draw 17%, Atletico Paranaense win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 40%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Flamengo | Atletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 69% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 64% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 47% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.