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Corinthians vs Vitoria: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Corinthians 6.2, Vitoria 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards: Corinthians 2.5, Vitoria 3.0; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 64% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 64%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Corinthians win 44%, draw 26%, Vitoria win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Corinthians: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 9 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Vitoria: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Corinthians — 17, Vitoria — 12 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Corinthians at home and Vitoria away, 2024–2026.
| Corinthians | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 53 |
| Win rate | 43% | 13% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.1 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 79% | 57% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Corinthians won 9, 8 draws, Vitoria won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals, 11.6 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 18.04.2026: Vitoria 0:0 Corinthians
- 25.10.2025: Vitoria 0:1 Corinthians
- 01.06.2025: Corinthians 0:0 Vitoria
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Corinthians vs Vitoria?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Corinthians vs Vitoria?
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 64%.
Who is more likely to win Corinthians vs Vitoria?
Our model: Corinthians 44%, draw 26%, Vitoria 30%.