Xpect
Eastleigh vs Southend: prediction and statistics
England · National League · 30 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Eastleigh 1.5, Southend 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 55%, typical match 47%.
Form
Eastleigh: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Southend: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Eastleigh — 12, Southend — 2 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Eastleigh at home and Southend away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Eastleigh | Southend | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 55 |
| Win rate | 37% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 77% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 42% |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Eastleigh won 3, 1 draws, Southend won 7. Per match: 2.5 goals, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 20.01.2026: Southend 4:1 Eastleigh
- 24.09.2025: Eastleigh 2:1 Southend
- 22.03.2025: Eastleigh 1:2 Southend
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Eastleigh vs Southend?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 26%.