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FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: FC Groningen 5.6, Ajax Amsterdam 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: FC Groningen 1.5, Ajax Amsterdam 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 22% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Result
Our model: FC Groningen win 34%, draw 23%, Ajax Amsterdam win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
FC Groningen: last five matches — W-W-L-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Ajax Amsterdam: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 11 matches unbeaten · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: FC Groningen — 9, Ajax Amsterdam — 5 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
FC Groningen at home and Ajax Amsterdam away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Groningen | Ajax Amsterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 37 |
| Win rate | 45% | 51% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 26% | 30% |
Head to head
52 meetings in our database: FC Groningen won 7, 6 draws, Ajax Amsterdam won 39. Per match: 3.2 goals, 8.3 corners, 2.2 yellow cards.
- 21.05.2026: Ajax Amsterdam 2:0 FC Groningen
- 07.03.2026: FC Groningen 3:1 Ajax Amsterdam
- 02.12.2025: Ajax Amsterdam 2:0 FC Groningen
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 22%.
Who is more likely to win FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Our model: FC Groningen 34%, draw 23%, Ajax Amsterdam 42%.