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Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.8 corners in the match: Sparta Rotterdam 5.8, Willem II 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 64% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 52%, typical match 45%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Sparta Rotterdam 1.6, Willem II 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 75%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Sparta Rotterdam win 61%, draw 22%, Willem II win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam: last five matches — D-L-D-D-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 6 matches without a win · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Willem II: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Sparta Rotterdam — 12, Willem II — 18 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sparta Rotterdam at home and Willem II away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 20 |
| Win rate | 26% | 15% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 10.9 | 11.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 65% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 21% | 20% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Sparta Rotterdam won 10, 2 draws, Willem II won 5. Per match: 3.5 goals, 8.8 corners, 2.8 yellow cards.
- 18.12.2025: Willem II 1:5 Sparta Rotterdam
- 26.07.2025: Willem II 3:1 Sparta Rotterdam
- 02.03.2025: Sparta Rotterdam 4:0 Willem II
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our model expects 10.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 64%.
How many yellow cards in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 25%.
Who is more likely to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Market line without margin: Sparta Rotterdam 61%, draw 22%, Willem II 18%.