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Heerenveen vs Excelsior: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 16 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Heerenveen 5.8, Excelsior 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.9 yellow cards: Heerenveen 1.3, Excelsior 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 17% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 67%, typical match 58%.
Result
Market line without margin: Heerenveen win 53%, draw 23%, Excelsior win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Form
Heerenveen: last five matches — W-W-L-L-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Excelsior: last five matches — W-W-W-D-D.
- 12 matches unbeaten · away
- 10 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Heerenveen — 10, Excelsior — 7 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Heerenveen at home and Excelsior away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 21 |
| Win rate | 50% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 76% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 71% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 21% | 10% |
Head to head
28 meetings in our database: Heerenveen won 18, 3 draws, Excelsior won 7. Per match: 3.2 goals, 10.6 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.
- 07.03.2026: Excelsior 1:2 Heerenveen
- 04.10.2025: Heerenveen 2:1 Excelsior
- 19.01.2024: Excelsior 3:0 Heerenveen
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our model expects 2.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 17%.
Who is more likely to win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Market line without margin: Heerenveen 53%, draw 23%, Excelsior 23%.