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Fluminense vs Santos: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Fluminense 5.6, Santos 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Fluminense 2.3, Santos 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 58% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 58%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Fluminense win 50%, draw 24%, Santos win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Fluminense: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Santos: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Fluminense — 3, Santos — 8 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Fluminense at home and Santos away, 2024–2026.
| Fluminense | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 33 |
| Win rate | 62% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 34% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 68% | 49% |
Head to head
31 meetings in our database: Fluminense won 13, 7 draws, Santos won 11. Per match: 2.5 goals, 9.1 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 19.04.2026: Santos 2:3 Fluminense
- 31.08.2025: Santos 0:0 Fluminense
- 13.04.2025: Fluminense 1:0 Santos
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 58%.
Who is more likely to win Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model: Fluminense 50%, draw 24%, Santos 26%.