Xpect
Gubbio vs Atalanta II: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone B · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Gubbio · Atalanta II
Result
Our model: Gubbio win 37%, draw 27%, Atalanta II win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Gubbio: last five matches — L-W-W-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
Atalanta II: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
Table: Gubbio — 18, Atalanta II — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Gubbio at home and Atalanta II away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Gubbio | Atalanta II | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 4 |
| Win rate | 37% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Gubbio vs Atalanta II?
Our model: Gubbio 37%, draw 27%, Atalanta II 36%.