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Vado vs Sambenedettese: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone B · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Vado · Sambenedettese
Result
Our model: Vado win 48%, draw 26%, Sambenedettese win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Vado: last five matches — D-W-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Sambenedettese: last five matches — L-D-L-D-W.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Vado — 12, Sambenedettese — 19 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Vado at home and Sambenedettese away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vado | Sambenedettese | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 22 |
| Win rate | 50% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 0% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Vado vs Sambenedettese?
Our model: Vado 48%, draw 26%, Sambenedettese 26%.