Xpect
Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town: prediction and statistics
England · National League · 29 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Hartlepool 1.6, Harrogate Town 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 66%.
Result
Market line without margin: Hartlepool win 32%, draw 26%, Harrogate Town win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Hartlepool: last five matches — W-W-L-W-L.
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Harrogate Town: last five matches — W-W-L-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Hartlepool — 19, Harrogate Town — 5 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Hartlepool at home and Harrogate Town away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Hartlepool | Harrogate Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 4 |
| Win rate | 40% | 50% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 75% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 75% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 50% |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Hartlepool won 4, 2 draws, Harrogate Town won 5. Per match: 3.8 goals, 7.5 corners, 1.3 yellow cards.
- 01.01.2023: Hartlepool 3:3 Harrogate Town
- 26.11.2022: Hartlepool 3:1 Harrogate Town
- 15.10.2022: Harrogate Town 2:1 Hartlepool
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town?
Market line without margin: Hartlepool 32%, draw 26%, Harrogate Town 42%.