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Internazionale vs Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Internazionale · Shakhtar Donetsk
Key facts
- Our model expects more corners from Internazionale: 5.7 against 3.5 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Internazionale is the more likely winner in our model: 65%, draw 20%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 77% of Internazionale’s home matches and 40% of Shakhtar Donetsk’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 3 of 5 meetings.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Internazionale 5.7, Shakhtar Donetsk 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Internazionale 1.7, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Internazionale win 65%, draw 20%, Shakhtar Donetsk win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 52%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Internazionale
All 12: 5W · 0D · 7L · goals 21:18
Home 6: 2W · 0D · 4L · goals 10:11
- 13.10.26 · UCL · Club Brugge KV (h) 3:4
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Real Madrid (a) 1:2
- 24.02.26 · UCL · Bodo/Glimt (h) 1:2
- 18.02.26 · UCL · Bodo/Glimt (a) 1:3
- 28.01.26 · UCL · Borussia Dortmund (a) 2:0
League · Serie A 2026/27: 1 of 20 · 5W · 1D · 0L · goals 18:8. Italy — 2 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 88.6).
Shakhtar Donetsk
All 21: 10W · 6D · 5L · goals 40:24
Away 11: 6W · 4D · 1L · goals 20:12
- 10.09.26 · UCL · PSV Eindhoven (a) 1:1
- 07.05.26 · UECL · Crystal Palace (a) 1:2
- 30.04.26 · UECL · Crystal Palace (h) 1:3
- 16.04.26 · UECL · AZ Alkmaar (a) 2:2
- 09.04.26 · UECL · AZ Alkmaar (h) 3:0
League · Premier League 2026/27: 1 of 16 · 7W · 0D · 1L · goals 18:4. Ukraine — 23 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 24.3).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Internazionale — 28 of 36 · 0 pts · 2 played; Shakhtar Donetsk — 24 of 36 · 1 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
- 24.11.21 · UCL · Inter 2:0 Shakhtar Donetsk
- 28.09.21 · UCL · Shakhtar Donetsk 0:0 Inter
- 09.12.20 · UCL · Inter 0:0 Shakhtar Donetsk
- 27.10.20 · UCL · Shakhtar Donetsk 0:0 Inter
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Internazionale: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
Shakhtar Donetsk: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 12 matches unbeaten · away
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Internazionale at home and Shakhtar Donetsk away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Internazionale | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 5 |
| Win rate | 62% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 23% | 40% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Internazionale won 2, 3 draws, Shakhtar Donetsk won 0. Per match: 1.4 goals, 8.8 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.
- 24.11.2021: Internazionale 2:0 Shakhtar Donetsk
- 28.09.2021: Shakhtar Donetsk 0:0 Internazionale
- 09.12.2020: Internazionale 0:0 Shakhtar Donetsk
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Internazionale vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Internazionale vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Internazionale vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model: Internazionale 65%, draw 20%, Shakhtar Donetsk 15%.