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Leeds United vs Manchester United: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Leeds United 5.3, Manchester United 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Leeds United 1.7, Manchester United 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Leeds United win 45%, draw 24%, Manchester United win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Leeds United: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 10 matches unbeaten · at home
Manchester United: last five matches — W-D-L-D-D.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Leeds United — 6, Manchester United — 12 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Leeds United at home and Manchester United away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 22 | 41 |
| Win rate | 45% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 61% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 32% |
Head to head
34 meetings in our database: Leeds United won 5, 11 draws, Manchester United won 18. Per match: 2.6 goals, 11.8 corners, 3.9 yellow cards.
- 12.08.2026: Manchester United 1:1 Leeds United
- 13.04.2026: Manchester United 1:2 Leeds United
- 04.01.2026: Leeds United 1:1 Manchester United
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Our model: Leeds United 45%, draw 24%, Manchester United 32%.