Xpect
Levante vs Athletic Club: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Levante · Athletic Club
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Levante’s home matches and 43% of Athletic Club’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Athletic Club: 20 wins in 32 meetings with Levante.
- Levante is the more likely winner in our model: 70%, draw 18%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Levante 4.9, Athletic Club 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 62%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Levante 1.9, Athletic Club 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Levante win 70%, draw 18%, Athletic Club win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Levante: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Athletic Club: last five matches — L-L-L-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Levante — 17, Athletic Club — 10 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Levante at home and Athletic Club away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Levante | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 22 | 40 |
| Win rate | 36% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 40% |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Levante won 6, 6 draws, Athletic Club won 20. Per match: 2.8 goals, 10.9 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 08.02.2026: Athletic Club 4:2 Levante
- 29.11.2025: Levante 0:2 Athletic Club
- 07.03.2022: Athletic Club 3:1 Levante
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our model: Levante 70%, draw 18%, Athletic Club 12%.