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Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Libertad 4.9, Guayaquil City FC 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Libertad 2.1, Guayaquil City FC 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Libertad win 39%, draw 27%, Guayaquil City FC win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.
Form
Libertad: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
Guayaquil City FC: last five matches — D-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Libertad — 6, Guayaquil City FC — 8 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Libertad at home and Guayaquil City FC away, 2024–2026.
| Libertad | Guayaquil City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 15 |
| Win rate | 49% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 7.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 29% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 47% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Libertad won 1, 2 draws, Guayaquil City FC won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals, 9.0 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 15.08.2026: Guayaquil City FC 2:2 Libertad
- 21.04.2026: Libertad 0:1 Guayaquil City FC
- 10.10.2023: Libertad 1:0 Guayaquil City FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our model: Libertad 39%, draw 27%, Guayaquil City FC 34%.