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Lille vs Lyon: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Ligue 1, 21 November 2026: Lille are at home to Lyon. Lille go into the match 2nd of 18 in the table, Lyon are 5th. Lille are part of the leading group.
Recent results of Lille are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Lyon are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Lille against 1 for Lyon.
Lille are hard to beat on their own ground — 22 wins, 11 draws and 6 defeats in 39 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The away record of Lyon: 13 wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats in 39 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 63 meetings — wins: Lille 22, Lyon 21; draws: 20. The most recent meeting, on 1 February 2026, finished Lyon 1:0 Lille. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Lille: last five matches — W-W-D-L-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Lyon: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Lille — 2, Lyon — 5 (of 18).
Home and away record
Lille at home and Lyon away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lille | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-11-6 | 13-10-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Head to head
63 meetings in our database: Lille won 22, 20 draws, Lyon won 21. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 01.02.2026: Lyon 1:0 Lille
- 11.01.2026: Lille 1:2 Lyon
- 28.09.2025: Lille 0:1 Lyon
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 41% of Lille’s home matches and 54% of Lyon’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Lille: 5.3 against 4.3 for Lyon.
- No clear favourite in our model: 40% – 26% – 34%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Lille 5.3, Lyon 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 61%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Lille 2.0, Lyon 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 67%.
Result
Our model: Lille win 40%, draw 26%, Lyon win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Lille | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 56% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 41% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 33% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.