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Strasbourg vs Brest: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Strasbourg · Brest
Before kick-off
Ligue 1, 21 November 2026: Strasbourg are at home to Brest. Strasbourg go into the match 13th of 18 in the table, Brest are 9th.
An uneven run for Strasbourg: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Brest have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 7 against 8.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Strasbourg have 21 wins, 9 draws and 8 defeats in 38 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The away record of Brest: 10 wins, 8 draws and 21 defeats in 39 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.1 per game in home matches of Strasbourg and 3.1 in away matches of Brest.
Head to head there is no clear master over 15 meetings — wins: Strasbourg 5, Brest 6; draws: 4. The most recent meeting, on 13 May 2026, finished Brest 1:2 Strasbourg. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
Strasbourg: last five matches — L-W-D-L-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 7 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Brest: last five matches — D-W-L-D-W.
- 14 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Strasbourg — 13, Brest — 9 (of 18).
Home and away record
Strasbourg at home and Brest away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Strasbourg | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-9-8 | 10-8-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Strasbourg won 5, 4 draws, Brest won 6. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 13.05.2026: Brest 1:2 Strasbourg
- 30.11.2025: Strasbourg 1:2 Brest
- 23.02.2025: Strasbourg 0:0 Brest
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 68% of Strasbourg’s home matches and 62% of Brest’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Strasbourg: 5.5 against 3.9 for Brest.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Strasbourg 5.5, Brest 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Strasbourg 1.6, Brest 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Strasbourg win 46%, draw 22%, Brest win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 67%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Strasbourg | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 55% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 62% |
| Both teams score | 68% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 26% | 33% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.