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AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: AS Monaco · AJ Auxerre
Before kick-off
AS Monaco host AJ Auxerre in Ligue 1 on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: AS Monaco are 7th of 18, AJ Auxerre 14th — a gap of 7 places.
AS Monaco arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. AJ Auxerre are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, AS Monaco took 11 from that stretch and AJ Auxerre only 3.
Home advantage matters here: AS Monaco have 24 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.1 per game. AJ Auxerre find it hard on the road: 7 wins, 9 draws and 23 defeats in 39 away matches, 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.2 per game in home matches of AS Monaco and 3.3 in away matches of AJ Auxerre.
The 45 previous meetings are fairly balanced — AS Monaco 18, AJ Auxerre 13, draws 14. Last time out (19 April 2026) it ended AS Monaco 2:2 AJ Auxerre. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
AS Monaco: last five matches — W-D-W-D-W.
- 11 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
AJ Auxerre: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: AS Monaco — 7, AJ Auxerre — 14 (of 18).
Home and away record
AS Monaco at home and AJ Auxerre away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AS Monaco | AJ Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-7-7 | 7-9-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.0 |
Head to head
45 meetings in our database: AS Monaco won 18, 14 draws, AJ Auxerre won 13. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 19.04.2026: AS Monaco 2:2 AJ Auxerre
- 21.12.2025: AJ Auxerre 1:2 AS Monaco
- 13.09.2025: AJ Auxerre 1:2 AS Monaco
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes AS Monaco the favourite at 68%; a draw is 18%.
- AS Monaco should win the corner count: 5.7 expected against 4.1 for AJ Auxerre.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 61% of AS Monaco home games and 59% of AJ Auxerre away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: AS Monaco 5.7, AJ Auxerre 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: AS Monaco 1.9, AJ Auxerre 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: AS Monaco win 68%, draw 18%, AJ Auxerre win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| AS Monaco | AJ Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 63% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 34% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 34% | 26% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.