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Lens vs Toulouse: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Lens host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Lens are 11th, Toulouse 12th in a table of 18.
Lens have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Toulouse: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 6 and 6.
The home record of Lens (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 24 wins, 2 draws and 13 defeats in 39 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Away from home Toulouse have 13 wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats in 39 matches, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 33 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Lens 19, Toulouse 6, draws 8. Last time out (21 April 2026) it ended Lens 4:1 Toulouse. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Lens: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Toulouse: last five matches — D-D-D-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Lens — 11, Toulouse — 12 (of 18).
Home and away record
Lens at home and Toulouse away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lens | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-2-13 | 13-10-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Lens won 19, 8 draws, Toulouse won 6. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 21.04.2026: Lens 4:1 Toulouse
- 17.04.2026: Lens 3:2 Toulouse
- 02.01.2026: Toulouse 0:3 Lens
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Lens should win the corner count: 6.2 expected against 3.4 for Toulouse.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 51% of Lens home games and 56% of Toulouse away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Lens 6.2, Toulouse 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 63%, typical match 61%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Lens 1.7, Toulouse 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Lens win 45%, draw 22%, Toulouse win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 66%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Lens | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 62% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 39% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.