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Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Nice · Paris Saint-Germain
Before kick-off
Ligue 1, 21 November 2026: Nice are at home to Paris Saint-Germain. Nice go into the match 6th of 18 in the table, Paris Saint-Germain are 1st.
Few sides are in better shape than Nice right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Paris Saint-Germain arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Nice have 18 wins, 14 draws and 7 defeats in 39 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Paris Saint-Germain travel well: 27 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats in 40 away matches, with 2.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 55 meetings — wins: Nice 14, Paris Saint-Germain 29; draws: 12. The most recent meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Nice 0:4 Paris Saint-Germain. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Nice: last five matches — D-D-W-W-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Paris Saint-Germain: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 11 wins in a row · all competitions
- 11 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Nice — 6, Paris Saint-Germain — 1 (of 18).
Home and away record
Nice at home and Paris Saint-Germain away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Nice | Paris Saint-Germain | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 40 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-14-7 | 27-8-5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Head to head
55 meetings in our database: Nice won 14, 12 draws, Paris Saint-Germain won 29. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 21.03.2026: Nice 0:4 Paris Saint-Germain
- 01.11.2025: Paris Saint-Germain 1:0 Nice
- 25.04.2025: Paris Saint-Germain 1:3 Nice
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Paris Saint-Germain is the more likely winner in our model: 71%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of Nice’s home matches and 65% of Paris Saint-Germain’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Paris Saint-Germain: 5.9 against 3.7 for Nice.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Nice 3.7, Paris Saint-Germain 5.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 61%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: Nice 1.7, Paris Saint-Germain 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 23% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 59%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Nice win 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint-Germain win 71%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Nice | Paris Saint-Germain | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 46% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 65% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 68% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 64% | 30% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 8% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.