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NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: NEC Nijmegen 6.5, Fortuna Sittard 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: NEC Nijmegen 1.5, Fortuna Sittard 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 73%, typical match 76%.
Result
Our model: NEC Nijmegen win 50%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 65%.
Form
NEC Nijmegen: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Fortuna Sittard: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 wins in a row · away
Table: NEC Nijmegen — 11, Fortuna Sittard — 6 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
NEC Nijmegen at home and Fortuna Sittard away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 38 |
| Win rate | 39% | 26% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 79% | 68% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 47% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 29% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: NEC Nijmegen won 7, 7 draws, Fortuna Sittard won 5. Per match: 3.3 goals, 10.0 corners, 3.2 yellow cards.
- 28.02.2026: NEC Nijmegen 2:3 Fortuna Sittard
- 31.08.2025: Fortuna Sittard 3:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 19.01.2025: NEC Nijmegen 4:1 Fortuna Sittard
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model expects 10.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 27%.
Who is more likely to win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model: NEC Nijmegen 50%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard 28%.