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New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: New York Red Bulls 6.1, Toronto FC 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: New York Red Bulls 1.9, Toronto FC 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 62%.
Form
New York Red Bulls: last five matches — L-D-L-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Toronto FC: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: New York Red Bulls — 18, Toronto FC — 23 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
New York Red Bulls at home and Toronto FC away, 2024–2026.
| New York Red Bulls | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 49 | 47 |
| Win rate | 45% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 45% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 43% |
Head to head
35 meetings in our database: New York Red Bulls won 18, 11 draws, Toronto FC won 6. Per match: 2.7 goals, 10.6 corners, 3.4 yellow cards.
- 14.03.2026: Toronto FC 1:1 New York Red Bulls
- 25.06.2025: Toronto FC 1:1 New York Red Bulls
- 22.03.2025: New York Red Bulls 2:1 Toronto FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.