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Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Newcastle United 5.6, Aston Villa 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Newcastle United 1.9, Aston Villa 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 54%, typical match 50%.
Form
Newcastle United: last five matches — D-D-W-D-W.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Aston Villa: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Newcastle United — 9, Aston Villa — 16 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Newcastle United at home and Aston Villa away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Win rate | 56% | 39% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 11.4 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 68% | 63% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 59% | 37% |
Head to head
62 meetings in our database: Newcastle United won 29, 19 draws, Aston Villa won 14. Per match: 2.5 goals, 11.1 corners, 3.8 yellow cards.
- 14.02.2026: Aston Villa 1:3 Newcastle United
- 25.01.2026: Newcastle United 0:2 Aston Villa
- 16.08.2025: Aston Villa 0:0 Newcastle United
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.