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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Nottingham Forest 5.1, Arsenal 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 41%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Nottingham Forest 1.8, Arsenal 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Nottingham Forest win 41%, draw 27%, Arsenal win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Nottingham Forest: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches without a win · at home
Arsenal: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Nottingham Forest — 21, Arsenal — 2 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Nottingham Forest at home and Arsenal away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 41 |
| Win rate | 33% | 54% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 23% | 34% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Nottingham Forest won 2, 4 draws, Arsenal won 10. Per match: 2.2 goals, 11.8 corners, 2.8 yellow cards.
- 17.01.2026: Nottingham Forest 0:0 Arsenal
- 13.09.2025: Arsenal 3:0 Nottingham Forest
- 26.02.2025: Nottingham Forest 0:0 Arsenal
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 27%.
Who is more likely to win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our model: Nottingham Forest 41%, draw 27%, Arsenal 32%.