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Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United: prediction and statistics
Indonesia · Liga 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Persebaya Surabaya · Java United
Before kick-off
Persebaya Surabaya host Java United in Liga 1 on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Persebaya Surabaya are 8th, Java United 7th in a table of 18.
Persebaya Surabaya are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. The last 5 games brought Java United no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Counted in points, Persebaya Surabaya took 9 from that stretch and Java United only 2.
Home advantage matters here: Persebaya Surabaya have 21 wins, 12 draws and 6 defeats in 39 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Away from home Java United have 13 wins, 13 draws and 12 defeats in 38 matches, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 4 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Persebaya Surabaya 2, Java United 1, draws 1. Last time out (23 April 2026) it ended Java United 0:2 Persebaya Surabaya. On average these meetings produce 1.8 goals.
Form
Persebaya Surabaya: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 12 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Java United: last five matches — L-L-L-D-D.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Persebaya Surabaya — 8, Java United — 7 (of 18).
Home and away record
Persebaya Surabaya at home and Java United away, 2024–2026.
| Persebaya Surabaya | Java United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 38 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-12-6 | 13-13-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Persebaya Surabaya won 2, 1 draws, Java United won 1. Per match: 1.8 goals.
- 23.04.2026: Java United 0:2 Persebaya Surabaya
- 10.01.2026: Persebaya Surabaya 2:1 Java United
- 17.01.2025: Persebaya Surabaya 0:2 Java United
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 54% of Persebaya Surabaya home games and 45% of Java United away games.
- Our model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 56%; a draw is 21%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Persebaya Surabaya 1.7, Java United 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Persebaya Surabaya win 56%, draw 21%, Java United win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 61%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Persebaya Surabaya | Java United | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 54% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 32% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.