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Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.7 corners in the match: Sao Paulo 6.0, Vasco DA Gama 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 62% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 62%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Sao Paulo 2.0, Vasco DA Gama 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Sao Paulo win 45%, draw 28%, Vasco DA Gama win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Sao Paulo: last five matches — W-W-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Vasco DA Gama: last five matches — W-L-D-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Sao Paulo — 11, Vasco DA Gama — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sao Paulo at home and Vasco DA Gama away, 2024–2026.
| Sao Paulo | Vasco DA Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 52 |
| Win rate | 58% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 44% |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Sao Paulo won 12, 7 draws, Vasco DA Gama won 8. Per match: 2.5 goals, 8.9 corners, 4.6 yellow cards.
- 18.04.2026: Vasco DA Gama 2:1 Sao Paulo
- 02.11.2025: Vasco DA Gama 0:2 Sao Paulo
- 13.06.2025: Sao Paulo 1:3 Vasco DA Gama
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model expects 10.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 62%.
How many yellow cards in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Market line without margin: Sao Paulo 45%, draw 28%, Vasco DA Gama 26%.