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SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: SC Cambuur 5.7, AZ Alkmaar 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 70%, typical match 70%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: SC Cambuur 1.5, AZ Alkmaar 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 51%, typical match 42%.
Result
Our model: SC Cambuur win 35%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
SC Cambuur: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
AZ Alkmaar: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: SC Cambuur — 14, AZ Alkmaar — 3 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
SC Cambuur at home and AZ Alkmaar away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| SC Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 38 |
| Win rate | 25% | 45% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 58% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 40% |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: SC Cambuur won 0, 4 draws, AZ Alkmaar won 7. Per match: 2.1 goals, 10.3 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.
- 25.02.2023: AZ Alkmaar 2:1 SC Cambuur
- 28.08.2022: SC Cambuur 0:1 AZ Alkmaar
- 22.01.2022: AZ Alkmaar 0:0 SC Cambuur
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model: SC Cambuur 35%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar 43%.