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US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel: prediction and statistics
Tunisia · Ligue 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: US Monastirienne · ES Sahel
Before kick-off
US Monastirienne host ES Sahel in Ligue 1 on 21 November 2026. In the standings US Monastirienne are 6th and ES Sahel 11th out of 16 teams.
US Monastirienne have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. ES Sahel are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, US Monastirienne took 10 from that stretch and ES Sahel only 3.
Home advantage matters here: US Monastirienne have 22 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats in 33 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.5 per game. On the road ES Sahel are a dangerous side — 14 wins, 8 draws and 11 defeats in 33 away matches, 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
The 28 previous meetings are fairly balanced — US Monastirienne 8, ES Sahel 12, draws 8. Last time out (7 February 2026) it ended ES Sahel 1:0 US Monastirienne. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
US Monastirienne: last five matches — L-W-W-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
ES Sahel: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
Table: US Monastirienne — 6, ES Sahel — 11 (of 16).
Home and away record
US Monastirienne at home and ES Sahel away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| US Monastirienne | ES Sahel | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 33 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-8-3 | 14-8-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.2 |
Head to head
28 meetings in our database: US Monastirienne won 8, 8 draws, ES Sahel won 12. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 07.02.2026: ES Sahel 1:0 US Monastirienne
- 13.09.2025: US Monastirienne 1:1 ES Sahel
- 02.02.2025: ES Sahel 1:0 US Monastirienne
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 36% of US Monastirienne home games and 46% of ES Sahel away games.
- Our model makes US Monastirienne the favourite at 55%; a draw is 30%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: US Monastirienne 2.4, ES Sahel 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 50%, typical match 45%.
Result
Our model: US Monastirienne win 55%, draw 30%, ES Sahel win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 27%, both teams to score — 29%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| US Monastirienne | ES Sahel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 58% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.