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Vihren vs Nesebar: prediction and statistics
Bulgaria · Second League · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Vihren 2.4, Nesebar 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 74%.
Result
Market line without margin: Vihren win 67%, draw 20%, Nesebar win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — —.
Form
Vihren: last five matches — D-D-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
Nesebar: last five matches — L-L-W-L-D.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Vihren — 1, Nesebar — 5 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Vihren at home and Nesebar away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vihren | Nesebar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 21 | 23 |
| Win rate | 62% | 9% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 26% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 30% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 56% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Vihren vs Nesebar?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 53%.
Who is more likely to win Vihren vs Nesebar?
Market line without margin: Vihren 67%, draw 20%, Nesebar 13%.