XpectXpect

1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: prediction and statistics

Germany · Bundesliga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: 1. FC Union Berlin · RB Leipzig

Before kick-off

1. FC Union Berlin host RB Leipzig in Bundesliga on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: RB Leipzig are 4th of 18, 1. FC Union Berlin 16th — a gap of 12 places. 1. FC Union Berlin are in the bottom three.

1. FC Union Berlin have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for RB Leipzig: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 6 and 6.

The home record of 1. FC Union Berlin (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 11 wins, 16 draws and 12 defeats in 39 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Away from home RB Leipzig have 14 wins, 9 draws and 15 defeats in 38 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game.

The 19 previous meetings are fairly balanced — 1. FC Union Berlin 7, RB Leipzig 9, draws 3. Last time out (24 April 2026) it ended RB Leipzig 3:1 1. FC Union Berlin. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.

Form

1. FC Union Berlin: last five matches — D-L-W-D-D.

RB Leipzig: last five matches — L-L-L-W-W.

Table: 1. FC Union Berlin — 16, RB Leipzig — 4 (of 18).

Home and away record

1. FC Union Berlin at home and RB Leipzig away, 2024/25–2026/27.

1. FC Union BerlinRB Leipzig
Matches3938
Wins · draws · losses11-16-1214-9-15
Goals scored per match1.31.3
Goals conceded per match1.41.7

Head to head

19 meetings in our database: 1. FC Union Berlin won 7, 3 draws, RB Leipzig won 9. Per match: 2.8 goals.

🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription

Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.

Open in the app →Download for Android

Key facts

  • Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 56% of 1. FC Union Berlin home games and 55% of RB Leipzig away games.
  • Our model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 68%; a draw is 17%.

Corners

50%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: 1. FC Union Berlin 4.8, RB Leipzig 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 50%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 50%, typical match 50%.

Yellow cards

75%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: 1. FC Union Berlin 1.7, RB Leipzig 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 35%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 57%, typical match 45%.

Result

Our model: 1. FC Union Berlin win 15%, draw 17%, RB Leipzig win 68%. Over 2.5 goals — 72%, both teams to score — 63%.

Team statistics for three seasons

1. FC Union BerlinRB Leipzig
Win rate28%37%
Over 2.5 goals56%55%
Both teams score62%50%
Total corners per match9.19.6
Over 9.5 corners45%50%
Total yellow cards per match4.43.7
Over 4.5 yellow cards45%29%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 9.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.4 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Other matches

Full prediction