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Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart: prediction and statistics

Germany · Bundesliga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Schalke 04 · VfB Stuttgart

Before kick-off

Schalke 04 host VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: VfB Stuttgart are 8th of 18, Schalke 04 17th — a gap of 9 places. Schalke 04 are in the bottom three.

Schalke 04 are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of VfB Stuttgart are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Counted in points, VfB Stuttgart took 9 from that stretch and Schalke 04 only 2.

The home record of Schalke 04 (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, 0.3 scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Away from home VfB Stuttgart have 15 wins, 11 draws and 13 defeats in 39 matches, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.8 per game.

The 54 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Schalke 04 23, VfB Stuttgart 18, draws 13. Last time out (25 February 2023) it ended Schalke 04 2:1 VfB Stuttgart. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.

Form

Schalke 04: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.

VfB Stuttgart: last five matches — W-L-W-W-L.

Table: Schalke 04 — 17, VfB Stuttgart — 8 (of 18).

Home and away record

Schalke 04 at home and VfB Stuttgart away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Schalke 04VfB Stuttgart
Matches639
Wins · draws · losses2-2-215-11-13
Goals scored per match0.32.0
Goals conceded per match0.51.8

Head to head

54 meetings in our database: Schalke 04 won 23, 13 draws, VfB Stuttgart won 18. Per match: 2.8 goals.

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Key facts

  • Our model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 53%; a draw is 22%.
  • VfB Stuttgart should win the corner count: 5.5 expected against 4.3 for Schalke 04.
  • Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 0% of Schalke 04 home games and 80% of VfB Stuttgart away games.

Corners

52%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Schalke 04 4.3, VfB Stuttgart 5.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 50%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.

Yellow cards

67%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Schalke 04 1.8, VfB Stuttgart 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 35%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 65%.

Result

Our model: Schalke 04 win 25%, draw 22%, VfB Stuttgart win 53%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 62%.

Team statistics for three seasons

Schalke 04VfB Stuttgart
Win rate33%38%
Over 2.5 goals0%80%
Both teams score0%69%
Total corners per match7.710.5
Over 9.5 corners33%62%
Total yellow cards per match3.03.8
Over 4.5 yellow cards17%31%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 9.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.1 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

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