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Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Bayer Leverkusen · SC Paderborn 07
Before kick-off
Bundesliga, 21 November 2026: Bayer Leverkusen are at home to SC Paderborn 07. Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th in the 18-team table while SC Paderborn 07 are 13th, so 8 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Bayer Leverkusen are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. SC Paderborn 07 have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are hard to beat on their own ground — 22 wins, 8 draws and 8 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The away record of SC Paderborn 07: 1 win, 4 draws and 1 defeat in 6 matches, with 0.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average.
Head to head, Bayer Leverkusen have the upper hand: 6 wins in 8 meetings with SC Paderborn 07 in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 29 October 2025, finished SC Paderborn 07 2:4 Bayer Leverkusen. On average these meetings produce 3.9 goals.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
SC Paderborn 07: last five matches — D-L-W-D-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Bayer Leverkusen — 5, SC Paderborn 07 — 13 (of 18).
Home and away record
Bayer Leverkusen at home and SC Paderborn 07 away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Paderborn 07 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-8-8 | 1-4-1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Bayer Leverkusen won 6, 1 draws, SC Paderborn 07 won 1. Per match: 3.9 goals.
- 29.10.2025: SC Paderborn 07 2:4 Bayer Leverkusen
- 06.12.2023: Bayer Leverkusen 3:1 SC Paderborn 07
- 21.07.2023: Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 SC Paderborn 07
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Head to head favours Bayer Leverkusen: 6 wins in 8 meetings with SC Paderborn 07.
- Our model expects more corners from Bayer Leverkusen: 7.2 against 2.7 for SC Paderborn 07.
- Bayer Leverkusen is the more likely winner in our model: 69%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 61% of Bayer Leverkusen’s home matches and 33% of SC Paderborn 07’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Bayer Leverkusen 7.2, SC Paderborn 07 2.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Bayer Leverkusen 1.8, SC Paderborn 07 2.7; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 65%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Bayer Leverkusen win 69%, draw 18%, SC Paderborn 07 win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Paderborn 07 | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 58% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 17% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 66% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 20% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.