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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Borussia Mönchengladbach · Borussia Dortmund
Before kick-off
Bundesliga, 21 November 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach are at home to Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in the 18-team table while Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th, so 16 places separate the two sides. Borussia Mönchengladbach are fighting at the wrong end of the table. Borussia Dortmund are in the top three.
An uneven run for Borussia Mönchengladbach: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Borussia Dortmund have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 7 against 8.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Borussia Mönchengladbach have 13 wins, 10 draws and 15 defeats in 38 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Borussia Dortmund travel well: 17 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats in 38 away matches, with 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.2 per game in home matches of Borussia Mönchengladbach and 3.1 in away matches of Borussia Dortmund.
Head to head there is no clear master over 62 meetings — wins: Borussia Mönchengladbach 15, Borussia Dortmund 36; draws: 11. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:0 Borussia Dortmund. On average these meetings produce 3.1 goals.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach: last five matches — L-L-W-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Borussia Dortmund: last five matches — W-L-D-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 18, Borussia Dortmund — 2 (of 18).
Home and away record
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home and Borussia Dortmund away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 38 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 13-10-15 | 17-10-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Head to head
62 meetings in our database: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 15, 11 draws, Borussia Dortmund won 36. Per match: 3.1 goals.
- 03.05.2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:0 Borussia Dortmund
- 19.12.2025: Borussia Dortmund 2:0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 20.04.2025: Borussia Dortmund 3:2 Borussia Mönchengladbach
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach’s home matches and 58% of Borussia Dortmund’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Borussia Dortmund: 5.5 against 3.8 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Borussia Dortmund is the more likely winner in our model: 62%, draw 20%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.8, Borussia Dortmund 5.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.8, Borussia Dortmund 2.3; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Borussia Mönchengladbach win 18%, draw 20%, Borussia Dortmund win 62%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 34% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 34% | 50% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.