Xpect
SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: SV Elversberg · SC Freiburg
Before kick-off
Bundesliga, 21 November 2026: SV Elversberg are at home to SC Freiburg. SV Elversberg go into the match 7th of 18 in the table, SC Freiburg are 3rd. SC Freiburg are in the top three.
Recent results of SV Elversberg are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. SC Freiburg have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
SV Elversberg are hard to beat on their own ground — 5 wins and 1 defeat in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 3.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. The away record of SC Freiburg: 13 wins, 8 draws and 17 defeats in 38 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. The most recent meeting, on 2 July 2022, finished SC Freiburg 0:0 SV Elversberg.
Form
SV Elversberg: last five matches — W-L-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
SC Freiburg: last five matches — D-L-L-W-W.
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: SV Elversberg — 7, SC Freiburg — 3 (of 18).
Home and away record
SV Elversberg at home and SC Freiburg away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| SV Elversberg | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 38 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-0-1 | 13-8-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: SV Elversberg won 0, 1 draws, SC Freiburg won 0. Per match: 0.0 goals.
- 02.07.2022: SC Freiburg 0:0 SV Elversberg
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 100% of SV Elversberg’s home matches and 58% of SC Freiburg’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: SV Elversberg 5.1, SC Freiburg 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: SV Elversberg 1.6, SC Freiburg 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 52%, typical match 45%.
Result
Our model: SV Elversberg win 32%, draw 21%, SC Freiburg win 47%. Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 70%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| SV Elversberg | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 83% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 83% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 7.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 26% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 18% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.