Xpect
Águilas vs Europa Fc: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 2 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Águilas · Europa Fc
Before kick-off
Primera Federación – Grupo 2, 21 November 2026: Águilas are at home to Europa Fc. Águilas go into the match 15th of 20 in the table, Europa Fc are 18th. Europa Fc are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for Águilas: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Europa Fc recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games.
Águilas have not made their ground a fortress: 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. The away record of Europa Fc: 7 wins, 6 draws and 11 defeats in 24 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Águilas: last five matches — W-L-D-L-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Europa Fc: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Águilas — 15, Europa Fc — 18 (of 20).
Home and away record
Águilas at home and Europa Fc away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Águilas | Europa Fc | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 24 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-3-2 | 7-6-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Águilas is the more likely winner in our model: 51%, draw 25%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Águilas’s home matches and 54% of Europa Fc’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Águilas 2.6, Europa Fc 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 57%).
Result
Our model: Águilas win 51%, draw 25%, Europa Fc win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Águilas | Europa Fc | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 17% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 54% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.