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Atlético CP vs Casa Pia: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Atlético CP · Casa Pia
Before kick-off
Taça de Portugal, 21 November 2026: Atlético CP are at home to Casa Pia.
Few sides are in better shape than Atlético CP right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. Casa Pia arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches.
Atlético CP are hard to beat on their own ground — 5 wins and 2 defeats in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Casa Pia travel well: 5 wins and 1 draw in 6 away matches, with 2.5 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Atlético CP: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Casa Pia: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Home and away record
Atlético CP at home and Casa Pia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Atlético CP | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-0-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.2 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 36% – 27% – 37%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 43% of Atlético CP’s home matches and 50% of Casa Pia’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Atlético CP 2.4, Casa Pia 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 61% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Atlético CP win 36%, draw 27%, Casa Pia win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Atlético CP | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 71% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 17% |
| Total corners per match | — | 11.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 17% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.